Riding the wave of exponential change

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Vivek Wadhwa. PHOTO: Courtesy Vivek Wadhwa

When the TV series Star Trek first aired in 1966, the idea of a communicator—a handheld device enabling instantaneous communication—was science fiction. Smartphones today make Captain Kirk’s communicator look primitive, offering capabilities far beyond what science fiction once imagined. They’re not just communication tools; they’re cameras, wallets, health trackers, and entertainment hubs. Without realizing it, we’ve entered the Star Trek future, where the extraordinary has become ordinary—and science fiction has become reality. This year, 2024, has been another giant leap in proving that the future is arriving faster than we ever imagined.

Consider the world around us: drones are increasingly being used for agricultural surveys, medical supply deliveries, and even disaster management. They have even taken over Indian weddings, buzzing like overzealous relatives to capture cinematic shots worthy of a Bollywood blockbuster! Electric two-wheelers and e-rickshaws dominate streets. Security cameras are not just for offices and public spaces; they are now common in housing societies and even individual homes.

Autonomous vehicles are being tested, signaling a groundbreaking shift in mobility. I once joked that not even God could navigate India’s chaotic roads—but it looks like algorithms have managed to bribe the traffic gods! Delivery robots and robot waiters are making appearances in tech hubs, while electric vehicles (EVs) are gaining traction as a viable alternative to traditional fuel-powered cars.

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Inside homes, technology is reshaping daily life. Affordable smart devices powered by voice assistants are managing lights, fans, and even water pumps in rural areas. Fitness-tracking wearables have become popular, and virtual reality devices are creating new entertainment experiences.

And then, over 50% of retail transactions are now digital, with UPI processing billions of payments every month. Even small vendors and roadside stalls accept money through QR codes. I won’t forget the cheeky beggar who whipped out a QR code and quipped, “Arre bhai, no cash? No problem!” Home delivery services have revolutionized convenience, ensuring food and groceries reach doorsteps within minutes.

What’s most remarkable is the pace of this transformation. Technological progress builds exponentially, with each innovation accelerating the next. The widespread adoption of smartphones, for example, has given rise to industries like digital payments, e-commerce, and telemedicine. Initiatives like ‘Digital India’ and ‘Make in India’ have further fueled this exponential growth.

This compounding effect means that what once seemed futuristic can become commonplace almost overnight. And we’re just getting started. Technologies like quantum computing, AI, and advancements in biotechnology are set to revolutionize key sectors like healthcare, education, and manufacturing. These breakthroughs, ranging from AI-driven diagnostics that my company Vionix Biosciences is developing, to precision gene-editing tools, promise to redefine industries, solve complex problems, and unlock innovative solutions, paving the way for transformative growth and unprecedented opportunities.

The possibilities ahead are breathtaking. Autonomous vehicles could reduce traffic congestion and road accidents, especially in densely populated cities. AI-driven diagnostics will make comprehensive healthcare accessible to even the most remote areas—and affordable to the poor. Technologies will tackle issues like water scarcity, waste management, and urban planning.

Renewable energy projects, including large-scale solar farms and wind installations, are fighting climate change while paving the way for energy independence and sustainable growth. Advances in gene editing could eliminate diseases, while entrepreneurs like Elon Musk are working on taking humanity to the heavens.

In The Driver in the Driverless Car, I wrote about the dilemmas we face as technology advances. We must ask three questions: Does this innovation have the potential to benefit everyone equally? What are the risks and unintended consequences? Does it promote autonomy or dependency?

These questions are deeply relevant to technologies like autonomous vehicles, which could redefine mobility for all; AI-powered diagnostics, promising greater access to healthcare but with potential bias risks; and digital payment systems, transforming convenience yet raising concerns about inclusivity and security. The choices we make in answering these questions will determine whether the technology we create becomes a force for good or takes down a dark path.

The risks are real. Drones, while helpful in delivering life-saving supplies, could be weaponized or used for invasive surveillance. AI’s promise of personalization can easily turn into manipulation or reinforce biases encoded into its algorithms. The digital divide remains a critical issue, leaving many behind without access to even the most basic technologies. Addressing these challenges will require innovation, regulation, and a commitment to ensuring inclusivity.

Yet, optimism is warranted. The global pandemic accelerated the adoption of telemedicine and online education, showing how quickly societies can adapt when faced with challenges. In cities and villages alike, the democratization of information through smartphones and internet connectivity has created opportunities that were unimaginable just a decade ago. The Aadhaar system demonstrates how digital infrastructure can transform governance and enable financial inclusion for millions.

These advancements are opportunities to boldly go where no one has gone before—toward a future that is more just, sustainable, and prosperous for all. But achieving this will require vigilance, humility, and a steadfast commitment to our shared humanity. Each of us, as citizens and innovators, holds the power to shape a future—whether by learning, building, or championing technology that uplifts and unites. Technology must be an enabler, not a divider.

As we step into 2025, let us continue to harness the transformative power of technology, working together to build a future where progress uplifts everyone and innovation knows no boundaries.

(This article first appeared in The Economic Times December 20. The version used here was sent by the author to News India Times and used with his express permission)